How can energy projects deliver predictable outcomes?

Energy plays a critical role in enabling economic growth and societal progress. However, the conditions in which energy projects are developed and delivered are becoming increasingly complex. Changing geopolitics, constrained supply chains and evolving regulatory frameworks sit alongside the need to invest in secure, affordable energy while progressing the low-carbon transition. 

Investors and delivery teams face a familiar but pressing question: how can projects be delivered in a way that is both predictable and competitive? 

Performance data shows that only around one in four energy projects consistently meets its cost and schedule objectives. This gap between ambition and delivery capability presents a clear risk. This is not just to individual projects, but to the industry’s ability to respond at pace and at scale. 

“Closing this gap requires a shift in how projects are planned, governed and delivered.” 

It means strengthening predictability through resilient delivery models, focusing competitiveness on long-term value rather than short-term cost and embedding data driven discipline across the project lifecycle. Independent benchmarking, robust governance and meaningful collaboration with the supply chain are no longer optional.  

Through our annual Performance Forum workshops, industry leaders from across the globe came together to explore this challenge. Drawing on 30 years of benchmarking data, combined with participant polling and structured discussion, the workshops provided practical insight into what is working, where performance is falling short and, crucially, what needs to change to deliver more consistent outcomes.  

What do we mean by predictable and competitive delivery? 

Predictable projects are those that deliver against agreed cost and schedule targets. In practice, this is enabled by clear scope and technical definition, robust execution planning and effective risk management. It also includes supply chains with the capacity and capability to perform.  

Skilled project teams, supported by reliable data and independent benchmarks, play a central role in setting realistic targets and tackling optimism bias. Predictability is ultimately built through disciplined planning, transparency and control.  

“Competitive projects, by contrast, are shaped by the need to maximise value.” 

They focus on the efficient use of capital, people and time. They create delivery strategies that enable faster schedules, earlier investment decisions and improved speed to market. Their competitiveness depends on agility, innovation and the ability to respond quickly to changing market conditions.  

Delivering both outcomes at the same time remains challenging. New technologies, evolving regulations and supply chain pressures introduce uncertainty, while the drive for speed and efficiency can increase risk if not managed carefully. External influences such as inflation, funding availability and geopolitical change further increase this tension.  

Why is the challenge becoming more urgent?  

Energy projects demand significant capital investment, often in volatile and uncertain markets. Margins remain under pressure, and geopolitical disruption becomes more frequent. At the same time, access to funding increasingly depends on demonstrating control, resilience and confidence in delivery.  

“These pressures are heightened by the energy transition.” 

Low-carbon technologies introduce new technical and commercial risks, while expectations around transparency, value for money and delivery certainty continue to rise.  

Energy security also remains a priority and growing demand for power – from data centres and AI – is driving greater urgency for reliable, low-carbon supply. 

What does long-term performance data show? 

Insights from 30 years of Performance Forum benchmarking data show that during certain market cycles, delivery performance has improved through measures such as early contractor involvement, collaborative delivery models, and improved cost estimation practices.  

“However, predictability often fluctuates in response to external pressures rather than being embedded as a standard outcome.”   

Industry experts identified governance and decision making, contracting strategies and supply-chain capability as the most significant barriers to achieving predictable and competitive delivery. Talent availability and technology maturity have also been highlighted as contributing factors.  

Looking ahead, the challenge is to create delivery models that perform reliably, regardless of market conditions. 

Three priorities for project owners driving predictable and competitive performance 

1. Build resilience into delivery models  

Predictability should not depend on favourable market conditions. Greater resilience can be achieved by building resilience into delivery models and identifying the key levers in your control to maintain schedule and cost targets, even when market conditions shift.  

Agreeing a single, shared baseline at approval stage, preventing surprises through regular peer reviews, and maintaining flexibility with change control processes linked to reduced cost and schedule impact are crucial. These steps provide a practical approach to reduce risk in energy project delivery. 

2. Create value by early collaboration  

Competitiveness isn’t only about reducing costs or accelerating schedules. It’s also about creating sustainable value through delivery models that align risk, capability and reward.  

Early collaboration and clear risk allocation between operators and the supply chain are essential, supported by contracting strategies that enable delivery rather than constraining it.  

3. Embed data-backed decision-making  

Benchmarking is most effective when it informs future decisions. Strong performance feedback loops, supported by consistent data and lessons learned, enable better planning and risk management.  

Emerging AI tools offer practical support across estimating, scheduling and performance analysis, but their impact depends on high-quality data and effective governance.  

Meeting rising demand with better delivery 

Global energy demand continues to grow, driven by growing population, electrification and digitalisation and the expansion of data-intensive industries. At the same time, capital flows into the energy sector are expected to increase as governments, investors and operators seek to secure energy supply while accelerating the transition to lower carbon systems.  

The scale of investment required is significant. 

For energy professionals, the challenge is clear. It’s no longer enough simply to deliver more projects. The imperative is to deliver this increased investment more predictably and more competitively. 

By applying these priorities consistently, the industry can improve delivery outcomes, build confidence with investors and stakeholders, and ensure its equipped to meet rising global energy needs.  

Predictability and competitiveness are not tradeoffs. When aligned effectively, they enable the industry to deliver the scale, pace and reliability that the future demands.